2025: A Year of Global Risk



	2025: A Year of Global Risk Brandon Sun “Small World” Column, Monday, January 27 / 25 Zack Gross There is a meme circulating on social media that says: “We’d like to return 2025 because we don’t like how it’s turning out.” Yes, the major stores around Manitoba usually have long line-ups after the holiday season, as people return gifts that don’t fit, arrived damaged or just aren’t appropriate, but it is hard to see how we can “take back” what is happening in our world today. A number of think-tanks publish annual global risk assessments at the beginning of the New Year. So far, for 2025, they have not been far off in their prognostications. Whether it is the affects of climate change, or growing political instability and unpredictability in many countries, the continuation of war in various regions around the world, and more, 2025 has had a chilling affect on all of us. The Stimson Center, a non-partisan American foreign affairs research organization named after a past U.S. Secretary of State, begins its analysis of global risks with the topic of “Rogue America,” saying there is a high probability of economic problems in the US and with its North American and European trading partners, due to President Trump’s “America First” policy. Despite what Trump says, they fear that tariffs will hurt everyone involved and also create friction with all US allies. This may be particularly true with Mexico, where if Trump really wants to root out the drug lords and influx of drugs into the US, and really wants to sort out immigration issues along the Southern border, he will need to work with the Mexican administration rather than attack it. While he rails against growing ties between Mexico and Central America (for example, Panama) with China, he is pushing them into China’s sphere of influence by his attitude and by his policies. In the Middle East conflict, the Institute fears that the Trump Administration doesn’t have the diplomatic experience to understand all sides’ point of view and to negotiate a way to move into a future of peace, development and nation building. Not that this would be an easy challenge for any administration, but Trump and his envoy Mike Huckabee may not see how the Middle East is changing and how they need to move on from old ideas and old politicians. An evangelical view of the significance of the Holy Land may stand in the way of breaking out of centuries-long conflict. Trump may be correct in criticizing some NATO countries for not shouldering their fair share of the cost of European defense, with Canada being one of the culprits. However, should he abandon Ukraine by stopping arms shipments and diplomatic support, he will invite Putin and Russia to move quickly to take more territory and put more of Eastern Europe at risk. Here is another opportunity for a cease fire, negotiation and peace. One of Trump’s “problems” is that he likes the way strongman politicians operate. Whether it’s North Korea, Russia or China, he’d like to have that kind of power. Thus, he issues numerous Executive Orders and puts down the mainline media because they ask him tough questions. He wants to run a country where he is celebrated rather than scrutinized, and that is not how democracy works. Thus, there are risks in how he deals with autocratic countries, what concessions he gives them, and how he acts like them. Trump has already indicated he is pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization, at a time when California has been on fire and when the world is still recovering from a major pandemic that killed millions of people. “Drill, Baby, Drill” may not be the appropriate message for our world of climate crisis, and Mr. Kennedy may not be the best choice of a person to ensure the health of Americans and, ultimately, all of us. This is also a world where half the population lives in very difficult circumstances, vulnerable to climate change, conflict, hunger and disease, absence of social programs and human rights – in short, not progressing the way we might hope in a world that also possesses the super-rich and privileged. A study conducted by several European universities in 2022 showed that trillions of dollars have flowed away from the developing world to the wealthy countries, companies and oligarchs due to one-sided trade deals and global debt repayments. A campaign that dates back a couple of decades, Make Poverty History, called on governments to contribute more and better aid to the Third World, to make trade deals fairer for both sides, to cancel or greatly reduce global debt, and to end child poverty. Some progress has been made, but it has been meagre and may now in 2025 be reversed. We are faced with a year, or a term, or an age, of risk. It isn’t just the new Trump administration that is the problem. People of good will must not be discouraged. Don’t stop following the news. Don’t think that there’s nothing you can do. We must be our best selves at this time. Zack Gross is Board Chair of The Marquis Project, a Brandon-based international development organization, and co-author of the new book The Fair Trade Handbook: Building a Better World, Together. * * * * * Return to Articles page